Monday: Key events include Japan's GDP data with expected 3.1% YoY and 0.8% QoQ figures. China’s CPI data with forecasts of 0.7% YoY and 0.5% MoM will affect the CNY and related currencies. The EUR will react to the Sentix Investor Confidence, expected at -13.9, while the USD will be influenced by Consumer Credit, forecasted at 12.50B.
Tuesday: The GBP will be impacted by Employment Data, including Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate. The EUR will see movement from German CPI data, with CPI (YoY) expected at 1.9%. The USD will react to NFIB Small Business Optimism with an expected reading of 93.6. The CAD will be influenced by BoC Gov Macklem Speaks, and China’s Trade Balance, expected at 83.90B USD, will impact the CNY.
Wednesday: The GBP will be affected by GDP, Manufacturing, and Trade Balance Data, with GDP (MoM) at 0.0% and Manufacturing Production (MoM) at 1.1%. The USD will be influenced by Core CPI and CPI data, expected at 3.2% and 2.6% respectively, and Crude Oil Inventories. The EUR will react to the German 10-Year Bund Auction, and the NZD will see volatility from Electronic Card Retail Sales, with the previous data at -0.1%.
Thursday: The JPY will be impacted by PPI data, with PPI (MoM) expected at 0.0% and PPI (YoY) at 2.8%. The EUR will experience volatility from the ECB Interest Rate Decision and ECB Press Conference. The USD will react to PPI and Jobless Claims data, with PPI (MoM) at 0.2% and Initial Jobless Claims at 227K. The CAD will be influenced by Building Permits, and the USD will see movement from the WASDE Report. The NZD will be affected by the Business NZ PMI.
Friday: The JPY will be influenced by Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production data, with Industrial Production (MoM) expected at 2.8%. The GBP will react to Inflation Expectations. The EUR will be impacted by Industrial Production data, expected at 0.2% MoM. The USD will see movement from the Import/Export Price Index, and the CAD will be influenced by Capacity Utilization and Wholesale Sales data. The USD will also be affected by Michigan Consumer Sentiment and CFTC Speculative Net Positions data.
Saturday: Key events for CNY include House Prices, Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment Rate data. The Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings will provide insights into Eurozone economic strategies and impact the EUR.
DXY Analysis: The monthly fractal support for the Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure at 100.51. We are closely monitoring the potential development of a bullish crab pattern, which could materialize if the index breaks below this support level. This bullish crab pattern is projected at 99.81, positioning itself above the July 2023 fractal support, which stands at 99.57.
GBPUSD Analysis: Following the formation of the bearish crab pattern at 1.3265, we anticipate a decline towards the Fibonacci projection levels below 1.3037. There is potential for a retest of the previously broken monthly fractal resistance at 1.2894.
EURUSD Analysis: The pair closed last week rejecting the previously projected 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1134, which may act as a bearish pressure point. I anticipate the formation of a bullish AB=CD pattern, potentially emerging at 1.0980. This level is just above the broken weekly fractal resistance at 1.0948 and corresponds to a 38.2% retracement.