This week, global markets are set for substantial movements as critical economic events unfold, likely influencing investment strategies. Key metrics, such as inflation data, trade balances, and central bank decisions from major economies, will be under close scrutiny. These indicators provide a comprehensive view of the current economic conditions and shape expectations for future monetary policies. Stay tuned for the most significant market developments this week.
On Tuesday, July 23, focus will turn to the Existing Home Sales in the United States, a pivotal metric for the housing market that could influence economic growth projections. Additionally, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report will offer insights into oil inventories, impacting oil prices and related currencies.
On Wednesday, July 24, the spotlight will be on the GfK German Consumer Climate data, which reflects consumer sentiment in Germany, alongside PMIs for manufacturing and services from Germany and the Eurozone—key indicators of economic activity. In the United States, the Goods Trade Balance and the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched, as they affect perceptions of the U.S. economy's health.
On Thursday, July 25, the German Ifo Business Climate Index will be in focus, giving a deeper insight into the business environment in Germany. In the U.S., attention will shift to Q2 GDP data and Initial Jobless Claims, both of which are crucial for understanding the economic trajectory and labor market health.
Finally, on Friday, July 26, investors will be focused on the Core PCE Price Index in the United States, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, which is vital for shaping future monetary policy expectations. Additionally, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index will provide insights into consumer confidence and potential future spending.
DXY
4h chart
In the short term, we are closely monitoring two key fractal levels: resistance at 104.42, which could form the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, and support at 103.65, crucial for sustaining this potential reversal. A breakdown below this support could trigger further downside for the index, aligning with the medium-to-long-term outlook shared last week. However, the default target for the inverted head and shoulders pattern points to a potential rise back to 105, revisiting the previous resistance at 105.20.